by Juliet K | Oct 24, 2025 | Market Commentary
Market Commentary
The third quarter of 2025 extended gains in most asset classes, marked by alternating bouts of optimism and anxiety as investors weighed slowing growth against the potential for policy easing. After a strong rebound in Q2, equity markets began the quarter on uncertain footing amid weaker-than-expected economic data and renewed trade rhetoric. However, by late August, sentiment had improved as inflation continued to moderate and expectations for a Federal Reserve rate in September solidified. The S&P 500 ended the quarter up 8.1%, building on its first-half gains, while global equities (MSCI ACWI) rose 7.6%, supported by renewed strength in developed Asia and parts of Europe. In fixed income, core bonds (Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate Bond Index) advanced 2.0% as yields declined modestly on growing conviction that more cuts to the policy rate are coming. Credit spreads tightened modestly, underscoring continued confidence in corporate balance sheets and a benign default outlook.
The third quarter narrative revolved around the interplay between a cooling economy and the market’s increasing anticipation of monetary support. U.S. economic data pointed to slower but still positive growth, with payroll gains moderating and consumer confidence softening, particularly in lower-income segments. Meanwhile, inflation readings continued to drift lower, with the core PCE index approaching the Fed’s 2% target for the first time in nearly four years. Against this backdrop, the Fed cut interest rates in September by 25 bps and signaled more cuts to come through the end of 2026. Additionally, continued corporate plans for CapEx spending, especially around AI and datacenters, was met with enthusiasm by investors as that new technology continues to emerge as a major theme in economic growth. Markets interpreted these shifts as a green light for risk assets, fueling a late-quarter rally across equities, credit, and even longer-duration Treasuries.
Globally, signs of stabilization emerged in China and Europe after several quarters of sluggish performance. Chinese policymakers unveiled additional stimulus measures targeting domestic demand and small businesses, while the European Central Bank reinforced its commitment to accommodative policy amid persistently weak growth. These developments, combined with a modest pullback in the U.S. dollar, helped support international equities and commodities, particularly industrial metals and energy. Meanwhile, geopolitical tensions—while still simmering in Eastern Europe and the Middle East—remained largely contained, allowing investors to refocus on fundamentals. Sector leadership broadened as cyclical and value-oriented areas participated in the rally, with financials and industrials outperforming after months of lagging technology-driven returns.
Looking ahead to the final quarter of 2025, the market’s trajectory will likely hinge on the Fed’s policy follow-through and the durability of disinflation trends. Corporate earnings revisions have turned slightly positive, suggesting that companies are navigating the slower-growth backdrop with improved efficiency and cost discipline. While risks remain—from policy missteps to renewed geopolitical flare-ups—the combination of easing inflation, stable credit conditions, and the prospect of monetary accommodation provides a constructive foundation heading into year-end. As always, we remain focused on disciplined diversification and active risk management in navigating what continues to be an evolving and opportunity-rich market environment.
Portfolio Commentary
Equity Sleeve: We continue to maintain a mix of active and passive strategies across our equity exposures. International equities have added meaningful value to our portfolio performance thus far in 2025 and we are maintaining that allocation due to the backdrop of lower relative valuations (vs. US Large Cap stocks) and the potential persistence of a weakening dollar. Relative to broad equity benchmarks, we are overweight mid and small cap stocks due to low relative valuations, recent momentum, and potential tailwinds due to the current US Administration. Though small and mid cap stocks have lagged large caps this year, our allocations to active managers have been beneficial. We are swapping out a passive value strategy for an active value strategy with greater emphasis on stock selection prioritizing cash flow growth.
Fixed Income Sleeve: Fixed Income continues to experience volatility as markets anticipate how many Fed cuts, we can expect in 2025. In the aftermath of significant inflation and a historically fast rate hiking cycle, fixed income has proven to be a helpful defensive ballast in portfolios during the tariff environment over the past quarter. However, potential risks within credit markets as credit spreads remain historically tight. We will continue to rely on our core active manager to help navigate a changing rate and credit environment.
Alternatives Sleeve: To further diversify the fixed income portion of portfolios, we use a blend of diversified, balanced, and active managers designed to help navigate choppy markets. This strategy is meant to complement, not replace traditional fixed income as we aim to produce meaningful real returns while maintaining the primary focus of fixed income which is diversification from stock volatility. Included in this sleeve are strategies that use options to either provide modest equity exposure, reduce portfolio volatility, or generate income. These strategies experienced significant up capture relative to fixed income in the sharp equity market rally in the second quarter.
Securities and advisory services offered through LPL Financial, a registered investment advisor, Member FINRA/SIPC
The commentary in this report is not a complete analysis of every material fact in respect to any company, industry, or security. The opinions expressed here are not investment recommendations, but rather opinions that reflect the judgment of Horizon as of the date of the report and are subject to change without notice. Forward-looking statements cannot be guaranteed. We do not intend and will not endeavor to provide notice if or when our opinions or actions change. This document does not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any security or product and may not be relied upon in connection with the purchase or sale of any security or device.
Equity markets are represented by the S&P 500 Index. The S&P 500 is a market-capitalization-weighted index of the 500 largest U.S. publicly traded companies. The MSCI All Country World Index (ACWI) is a global equity index that tracks the performance of large- and mid-cap stocks in developed and emerging markets. The Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate Bond Index is a broad-based benchmark that measures the investment grade U.S. dollar-denominated, fixed-rate taxable bond market, including Treasuries, government-related and corporate securities, mortgage-backed securities, asset-backed securities and collateralized mortgage-backed securities. References to indices, or other measures of relative market performance over a specified period of time are provided for informational purposes only. Reference to an index does not imply that any account will achieve returns, volatility, or other results similar to that index. The composition of an index may not reflect the manner in which a portfolio is constructed in relation to expected or achieved returns, portfolio guidelines, restrictions, sectors, correlations, concentrations, volatility or tracking error targets, all of which are subject to change. Indices are unmanaged and do not have fees or expense charges, both of which would lower returns. It is not possible to invest directly in an unmanaged index.
This commentary is based on public information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete, and it should not be relied on as such.
Horizon Investments and the Horizon H are registered trademarks of Horizon Investments, LLC.
© 2025 Horizon Investments
by Juliet K | Sep 5, 2025 | Financial Planning
September brings a sense of fresh beginnings, with new classrooms, new routines, and new goals. But there’s one essential subject that doesn’t often make it onto the school supply list: financial literacy. While kids will spend the year learning math, science, and reading, they may graduate without knowing how to budget, save, or plan for their future. These skills are not just for adulthood. They are most effective when introduced early and reinforced over time.
The Power of Early Money Lessons
Learning to save from a young age teaches far more than just setting aside dollars. It builds discipline, patience, and the ability to set and achieve goals. When kids and young adults understand the value of money early, they carry that confidence into life’s bigger financial moments, whether that’s managing their first paycheck, paying for college, or buying their first car. These lessons are even more powerful when guided by someone they trust. For children, that guidance often comes from parents, grandparents, or family mentors. For adults, it comes from a financial advisor. In both cases, it’s about having someone who can help you think ahead, make informed choices, and stay focused on your goals.
Why Guidance Shapes Success
We see every day how having a collaborative financial advisor helps adults make smarter decisions and feel more confident about their future. The same is true for the next generation. When kids have someone who talks with them about money, saving, and planning, they begin to see how those habits translate into opportunities and stability later in life. Financial literacy is not a single lesson. It’s a journey. Just as school builds knowledge year after year, financial skills develop with consistent guidance and practice.
This School Year Is the Perfect Time to Start
The back-to-school season is full of energy and new possibilities. It’s the ideal time to start or continue the conversation about money with the young people in your life. That might mean helping them understand how to balance spending and saving, or for older teens, discussing credit, budgeting, and future goals. The goal isn’t to control every decision, but to equip them with the tools to make thoughtful ones, just as we do with our clients.
Mentorship for All Ages
No matter your age, having the right guidance can make all the difference in your financial journey. Parents and grandparents can serve as financial mentors to the next generation, and financial advisors can do the same for adults navigating life’s bigger financial decisions. This September, as we send students back to school, let’s also remember that financial education is a lifelong classroom. Whether you are helping a child learn to save or planning your own next big step, we are here to help guide you toward lasting financial confidence.
by Juliet K | Aug 15, 2025 | Retirement Planning
Living longer is a gift — but it also requires a thoughtful financial plan. With life expectancies rising and medical innovation advancing, many individuals today are not just retiring at 65 — they’re living well into their 90s or beyond.
So, the question isn’t just “Will I retire comfortably?” It’s “Will my wealth last as long as I do — and support the life I want along the way?”
Longevity planning is about more than not running out of money. It’s about intentionally structuring your resources to fund a longer, more meaningful life — with flexibility, security, and purpose.
Here’s how to begin preparing now, whether you’re already retired or just entering that phase.
1. Plan for More Than Just Basic Expenses
Why it matters:
Retirement may last 20, 30, or even 40 years. And those years may look very different from one decade to the next — with rising healthcare needs, evolving lifestyle goals, and increasing living costs.
Key Considerations:
- Build in inflation-adjusted spending forecasts, especially for healthcare, travel, and housing.
- Consider layered income planning, where guaranteed income covers basic expenses, and discretionary spending draws from flexible investment accounts.
- Review long-term insurance needs and healthcare strategies, including supplemental Medicare coverage or private options.
2. Think Beyond a 4% Withdrawal Rule
Why it matters:
Traditional withdrawal strategies may not hold up over a 30–40 year retirement, particularly during periods of market volatility or unexpected expenses.
Key Considerations:
- Work with your advisor to stress-test sustainable withdrawal strategies using real return assumptions and multiple market cycles.
- Consider a “guardrails” approach that adjusts spending based on market performance.
- Diversify income sources — including taxable, tax-deferred, and tax-free accounts — to provide flexibility and manage tax brackets year by year.
3. Prepare for the High Cost of Longevity: Long-Term Care
Why it matters:
The cost of long-term care can be significant, and has the potential to derail even well-funded retirement plans.
Key Considerations:
- Evaluate the role of long-term care insurance or hybrid life policies with care riders.*
- Understand Medicare limitations and plan for gaps in coverage.
- Consider setting aside a dedicated care fund as part of your retirement strategy, especially if self-insuring.
4. Rethink Inheritance: Don’t Wait Until the End
Why it matters:
Many retirees intend to leave behind a legacy — but often wait too long to make intentional, meaningful decisions. Longevity opens the door for more strategic, living legacies.
Key Considerations:
- Explore lifetime gifting strategies that allow you to support loved ones — or causes — while you’re here to witness the impact.
- Use annual exclusions and trust structures to manage estate taxes and help preserve assets.
- Consider multi-generational conversations about values, stewardship, and what your legacy really means beyond financial assets.
5. Plan for Purpose, Not Just Longevity
Why it matters:
A longer life isn’t just about financial durability — it’s also about quality of life, relationships, and purpose. Planning should support what matters most in the long run.
Key Considerations:
- Allocate time and resources for activities that create fulfillment — travel, family engagement, philanthropy, or encore careers.
- Discuss legacy documents beyond a will — including ethical wills, family mission statements, or charitable vision plans.
- Periodically revisit your plan. As life evolves, so should your strategy.
Final Thought: Living Longer Deserves a Better Plan
Living to 100 is no longer a hypothetical — it’s a possibility for many. With that reality comes an opportunity to redefine what retirement looks like and how wealth can support a meaningful, long-lasting life.
If you’re looking to ensure your financial plan is built not just to last, but to thrive across a longer horizon, our team is here to help. Let’s start planning for a future that’s not just secure — but fulfilling.
*Riders are additional guarantee options that are available to an annuity or life insurance contract holder. While some riders are part of an existing contract, many others may carry additional fees, charges and restrictions, and the policy holder should review their contract carefully before purchasing. Guarantees are based on the claims paying ability of the issuing insurance company.
by Juliet K | Aug 7, 2025 | Financial Planning
How to Use 2025’s Consumer Optimism to Make Smarter Financial Moves
After months of economic uncertainty, U.S. consumer confidence surged in May 2025, reaching its highest level in over a year. According to The Conference Board, the Consumer Confidence Index jumped to 102.0, driven by stronger outlooks for income, employment, and business conditions.
But here’s the key question:
Are your financial decisions rising with that confidence, or just riding the wave?
This article breaks down what the recent rebound means for investors, families, and business owners, and how to harness optimism without compromising your long-term strategy.
Why Consumer Confidence Matters in 2025
What’s Fueling the Rebound?
May’s increase in consumer sentiment was driven by:
- Improved income expectations: More Americans now expect their income to rise in the next six months.
- Better job market outlook: Optimism about employment conditions is strengthening.
- Increased spending intentions: More consumers are planning to purchase big-ticket items like homes, vehicles, and appliances.
- Stronger equity sentiment: Nearly 44% of respondents believe stock prices will rise over the next year.
This renewed confidence reflects a growing belief that the worst of the slowdown may be behind us, but it also opens the door to financial overreach if not handled wisely.
Turn Confidence Into Financial Strategy
1. Audit Your Budget
Confidence often encourages more spending, but without a solid budget, short-term excitement can lead to long-term regret.
Tip: Revisit your spending categories and ensure you’re still on track for savings, debt repayment, and investment contributions.
2. Invest With Intention
Markets may look more appealing right now, but they still demand thoughtful planning.
Tip: Review your portfolio to make sure your asset allocation matches your risk tolerance and time horizon.
3. Time Major Purchases Strategically
Thinking of buying a new home or car? This may be the right window, if it aligns with your broader financial plan.
Tip: Consider market conditions, interest rates, and your liquidity before making large commitments.
4. Reinforce Your Foundation
Higher confidence doesn’t mean fewer risks.
Tip: Ensure your emergency fund is intact and your insurance coverage is up to date. Avoid letting optimism dilute your financial safeguards.
Final Thoughts: Confidence Is Momentum, Not a Plan
The recent spike in consumer confidence is good news for the economy, but it’s your personal plan that determines how you benefit from it.
Instead of making impulsive decisions based on how things feel, take this opportunity to review your goals, adjust your strategy, and make informed, intentional moves that support your future.
Ready to align your financial plan with today’s momentum?
We’re here to help you stay confident, and clear, every step of the way.
by Juliet K | May 29, 2025 | Financial Planning
June is more than just the start of summer — it’s a season of transition. For new graduates, it marks the beginning of financial independence. For their parents and grandparents, it offers a chance to reflect on the lessons that shaped their own financial journeys — and the wisdom worth sharing forward.
Whether you’re guiding a child through their first job offer or supporting a grandchild’s next chapter, here are six enduring financial principles that deserve to be part of every family’s legacy.
1. Wealth Grows Quietly: Start Investing Early and Often
The Lesson:
The most powerful asset for any investor — regardless of income — is time. The earlier one begins to invest with intention, the more freedom and flexibility they’ll gain later in life.
For Graduates:
Open a Roth IRA or contribute to an employer-sponsored retirement plan, even modestly. Small, consistent investments matter more than perfect timing.
For Families:
Consider gifting appreciated assets or contributing to investment accounts for younger family members. It’s a meaningful way to support long-term wealth building.
2. Avoid the Pressure to Look Wealthy
The Lesson:
A high-spending lifestyle doesn’t always signal financial strength. In fact, true wealth is often built through restraint, long-term planning, and quiet confidence—not visibility.
For Graduates:
It’s easy to feel like you need to keep up—whether it’s luxury apartments, designer labels, or frequent travel. But real financial momentum starts with smart, sustainable choices, not appearances. Build from a place of purpose, not pressure.
For Families:
Model intentional spending. When the opportunity feels right, share stories about how thoughtful financial decisions and delayed gratification helped you reach meaningful milestones. Those examples speak louder than any lecture.
3. Liquidity Is a Privilege — Prioritize an Emergency Reserve
The Lesson:
Cash on hand creates choice and confidence. It’s not just a safety net — it’s the foundation of financial independence.
For Graduates:
Aim to build a reserve equal to 3–6 months of essential expenses. Keep it in a high-yield savings account — not invested or easily spent.
For Families:
Discuss the value of liquidity in major life moments — job changes, medical events, or market volatility. Share personal examples of when access to cash made a difference.
4. Understand Credit Before You Use It
The Lesson:
Credit is a tool that can either open doors or quietly erode future opportunities.
For Graduates:
Start with one low-limit card, pay it off in full, and avoid carrying a balance. A strong credit profile will make future milestones — home buying, business ventures — easier.
For Families:
Consider educating younger generations about credit scores, lending practices, and the role of debt in both wealth building and wealth destruction.
5. Know the Difference Between Earning and Keeping Wealth
The Lesson:
Income is only part of the equation. What you keep — after taxes, spending, and poor decisions — determines financial longevity.
For Graduates:
Pay attention to tax-advantaged accounts, employer benefits, and the long-term cost of decisions like car loans or leases.
For Families:
Help them understand that smart planning, not just a high salary, is what creates multi-generational stability.
6. Financial Wisdom Is the Best Inheritance
The Lesson:
Money alone doesn’t secure a future. Knowledge, values, and guidance are just as important.
For Graduates:
Stay curious. Read, ask questions, seek mentors, and revisit your goals often.
For Families:
Take the time to have real conversations. What do you wish you knew at 22? What mistakes made you wiser? These are the stories that stick — and shape.
Closing Thoughts: Stewardship That Spans Generations
As financial professionals, we often help clients plan for the future — but some of the most meaningful planning happens in conversation, not spreadsheets. Sharing financial wisdom with the next generation is a form of stewardship that transcends markets or milestones.
Whether you’re celebrating a graduation this month or simply looking to strengthen your family’s financial foundation, consider how these lessons can spark deeper dialogue — and deeper impact.
If you’d like help creating a gifting strategy, setting up education accounts, or having generational wealth conversations, we’re always here to guide the way.
Recent Comments